National Exit Poll-2014
On May 25, 2014, the day of presidential elections in Ukraine, the “National Exit Poll” Consortium which includes the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation (DIF), the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and the Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political Research named after Oleksandr Razumkov (Razumkov Centre) will conduct the National Exit Poll-2014.
The organizational, financial, and media management of the project will be exercised by DIF. The polling of voters will be conducted by KIIS and Razumkov Centre. The research management of the project, development of sample and coordination of polling work will be made by KIIS.
The total population of the exit poll will include voters who cast their votes at all polling stations (except special stations, such as those located in hospitals, prisons, military units, and embassies abroad) on the territory of Ukraine. The sample will be representative for Ukraine and its four main regions (the West, the Center, the East, and the South).
The sample will be two-level and clustered. On the first stage, in each region, polling stations will be selected with the equal probability and proportionally to the number of polling stations in this region. On the second stage, selection of voters at the polling station will be performed systematically (applying a step). Constant selection step will be used during the elections’ day.
The results of the exit poll will be presented on all-Ukrainian and regional levels.
The West – Zakarpattia, Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernivtsi and Khmelnytskyi regions.
The Center – Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv regions and Kyiv municipality.
The South – Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Dniptopetrovsk regions.
The East – Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Number of polling stations – 400 (200 per each research company).
Sample size – about 17,000 respondents (depending on voters’ turnout)
Average number of respondents at each polling station – around 45.
Number of interviewers – 2-3 people at each polling station, total of 1000 interviewers who will be previously trained will be involved in the exit poll.
Statistical sample error which takes into account design-effect will not exceed 1.3%. Nevertheless, there are difficulties to estimate systematic errors which depend upon many factors (including weather conditions). Basing on the experience of former exit-polls, which were carried out applying the same methodology, we assume that sample error will not exceed 2.5% for the leaders and will be within the limits of 0.5-1% for the other candidates. On 2012 parliamentary elections, maximum sample error did not exceed 1.9%.
Data collection method and questionnaire.
During the exit poll, the method of «secret ballot» will be used, since it lessens the number of refusals and considerably increases reliability of the exit-poll data. It differs from other methods in that during the polling process, instead of direct question “Whom did you vote for?”, the respondent independently fills in the questionnaire, which begins with this very question. The questionnaire will also contain questions on gender, age group, education, and time of making decision for whom to vote. While respondent will be asked to fill in the demographic questions, he/she will also be told that this is not obligatory.
The main aim of the project consists in securing effective civic control over the fairness of the electoral procedure and obtaining reliable data on socio-demographic structure of electorates of different candidates.
In Ukraine, tradition of exit poll conduction has already established itself. It was first launched by DIF in 1998 when it has conducted the first Ukrainian exit poll and organized TV-show “Election night” on 1998 parliamentary elections. Since then, DIF has gained considerable expertise and increase its capacity in conducting exit poll. DIF organized exit polls on 1998, 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2012 parliamentary elections, during two rounds of 1999 and 2010 presidential elections and three rounds of 2004 presidential elections. Since 1999 presidential elections, DIF was joined by KIIS, and since 2004 – also by Razumkov Centre. This will be the 13th exit poll conducted by DIF, 12th – conducted by KIIS, and 8th – conducted by Razumkov Centre. DIF has also conducted several local exit polls, including on 2004 mayoral elections in Mukachevo and on 2008 mayoral elections in Kyiv.
The results of the National Exit Poll-2014 will be presented in the “Ukrinform” informational agency (8/16 Bohdana Khmelnytskoho Street).
Three press conferences will be conducted on 25 May, 2014.
14:00 – press conference dedicated to the course of the polling of voters, possible problems and difficulties which interviewers might face during their work.
19:45 – beginning of the second press conference. 20:00 – presentation of the exit poll results collected as of 6 PM – two hours before the closure of the polling stations – and dictated through phone.
23:00 – press conference with the presentation of the exit poll results as of 8 PM – time of closure of the polling stations – and also dictated through phone.
Detailed report with the final results of the exit poll will be presented after obtaining paper questionnaires, preliminary – on June 3.
Moreover, DIF will publish a book with the analysis and presentation of the exit poll results (as it does after every election).
One long video clip and three shorts clips dedicated to the exit poll will also be produced and disseminated.
The National Exit Poll-2014 was financially supported by the consortium of international donors:
International Renaissance Foundation
Matra Program of the Embassy of the Kingdom of Netherlands in Ukraine
National Endowment for Democracy (USA)
PACT project of UNITER, USAID
The project will be implemented under control of the Observing Council which includes prominent civic leaders, leading journalists, and renowned experts. The conduction of polling activities on the election day will be controlled by foreign experts form Russia, Poland, and the USA.
The course and the results of the exit poll could be traced on such websites:
- National Exit Poll-2014 webpage – http://dif-exitpoll.org.ua
- Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation webpage – http://dif.org.ua
- Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation Facebook page – https://www.facebook.com/deminitiatives
- Kyiv International Institute of Sociology webpage – http://kiis.com.ua
The information on the mentioned webpages will be published both in Ukrainian and English. The information about the exit poll will be also disseminated through DIF e-mailing list.